Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.3357°N, 116.9250°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 04:35:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
113.4 km
13.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.56
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
12.8 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b81002f8f9e1430394c6e9d3bb7dcf516995dc90b510c165c34666e883e862eb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_030938_pred-38.34--116.92-20260726T0435
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_030938_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 10:13:10.797940+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.