Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.3 miles East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.3 miles East of Bridgeport
38.2178°N, 118.9161°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 20:06:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
32h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
18.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.56
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ecd7eb7fd6d120d653dbe51f8a63931676cc86d32d34ea4a29e8f19cc30a45c6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_040855_pred-38.22--118.92-20260725T2006
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:13:36 PST
Source Batch
20260724_040855_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 11:13:37.421847+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.