Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.4 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2279°N, 122.6786°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 17:07:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
221h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
14.8 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
31d2cebeebf36e820750485176ac9316eb16c481dd6b4e26b31894aa1328737d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_041905_pred-39.23--122.68-20260802T1707
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260724_041905_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 11:22:12.223826+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.