Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
5.1 miles North-West of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles North-West of Mammoth Lakes
37.7072°N, 119.0283°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 21:06:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M3.01 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5837670c07dba4380106f00bcc0f6306fb2c4cc62ad92036a799dfd0eab19e3c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_042622_pred-37.71--119.03-20260724T2106
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:30:56 PST
Source Batch
20260724_042622_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 11:30:57.552011+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.