Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
5.1 miles East of Badger
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles East of Badger
36.6317°N, 118.9422°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 01:51:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
80.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.35
Predicted M3.65 vs actual M2.3
- 0.35 over limit
Depth Error
27.8 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 18.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
07dbea6b6e7cc288744143b80dfc67a3b32a7207942c7d09b1a0f3010a9b33db
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_044406_pred-36.63--118.94-20260726T0151
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:48:40 PST
Source Batch
20260724_044406_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 11:48:40.917382+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.