Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
49.0 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
49.0 miles South-East of Calexico
32.0517°N, 115.1080°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 03:54:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
117.4 km
17.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
19.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 18.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
922b17b145596dbcb3feea34a2dc6bf0de1bb290c617a3f17e1e06469249685d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.05--115.11-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 03:42:32 PST
Source Batch
20260809_180953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 20:23:58.874806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.