Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
39.8 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.8 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1605°N, 115.2013°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 17:44:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
15h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6b72a9339d2c9f5b9c3b7357b79ce3dbe7205c5df67128c8413c9e03f151d4ca
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.16--115.20-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 02:00:06 PST
Source Batch
20260806_162723_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 02:00:07.813588+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.