Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
36.0 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.0 miles South-East of Calexico
32.2050°N, 115.2440°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 01:18:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
15h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
19.9 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a55d799d8cd3b43d4d1d971f5ff4f6e06674b08255b2a01eadfc90e1283df523
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.20--115.24-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_001513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 09:33:13.536511+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.