Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
36.2 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.2 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1995°N, 115.2471°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 12:20:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
22.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f7e2bb3c3f0f84ed9d899df57f9a46e885642993fec316a0997b6d66c01fb2fc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.20--115.25-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 19:03:26 PST
Source Batch
20260804_093153_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 19:03:27.895782+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.