Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
39.4 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.4 miles South-East of Calexico
32.2184°N, 115.1007°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 10:56:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
112.0 km
12.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 18.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0f4cf539b04b873a05ee6f9577a3226bd96cbacfb02a3ab91d048bc509b0afd1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.22--115.10-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 09:27:32 PST
Source Batch
20260808_235402_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 09:27:33.418496+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.