Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
34.8 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
34.8 miles South-East of Calexico
32.2164°N, 115.2621°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 18:31:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.59
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
040454e8946d58270bd364bb821de0e91648136feca0715600b414d51e620cdf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.22--115.26-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 06:11:15 PST
Source Batch
20260730_204958_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 06:11:17.176388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.