Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
34.6 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
34.6 miles South-East of Calexico
32.2181°N, 115.2654°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 05:48:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
19.9 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
85205de143e24f3e3555b2bf723d7fdcb3b866928d6b3328d22f818882835086
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.22--115.27-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 19:34:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_101611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 12:53:10.445097+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.