Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
34.2 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
34.2 miles South of Calexico
32.2166°N, 115.2894°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 16:47:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
21.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1814e34a5e6dfb75ea5898d62ab4e9958386acab6c72a83cafeb9569afca538c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.22--115.29-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_200611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 05:39:27.868892+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.