Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
38.2 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
38.2 miles South-East of Calexico
32.2278°N, 115.1211°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 14:13:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f7569d1ffef954df80c9ea902c6a8869a29499509287c67c2ac018449ce9661c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.23--115.12-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 19:56:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_102732_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 19:56:19.867669+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.