Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
33.4 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.4 miles South-East of Calexico
32.2397°N, 115.2577°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 18:38:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.95
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
25.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 20.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
847fb8a5bdc23775922a2772f0546d1f621834ca2afb6e377ecbe4e597ef3174
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.24--115.26-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 04:38:43 PST
Source Batch
20260803_190534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 21:25:56.733888+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.