Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
51.4 miles South-West of Coronado
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
51.4 miles South-West of Coronado
32.2444°N, 117.8925°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 21:15:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.1 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 17.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
24977aa6f4e273f845c04c8e33c3995b1cd66acdabfbbc213182ce73c489aefc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.24--117.89-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.