Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
110.2 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
110.2 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
32.3026°N, 119.2012°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 17:39:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
222.6 km
122.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
12.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
119bbd8b0175508ccab1a43bf282e078684e9a8fcb1bd14b0d6f44b190138564
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.30--119.20-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 00:03:19 PST
Source Batch
20260809_143000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 00:03:20.102765+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.