Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
35.4 miles South-West of Felicity
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
35.4 miles South-West of Felicity
32.3065°N, 115.0520°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 17:04:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
18.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
11b57b6649aab07d8a62a0c6c1c1418729f6d16ff68337fe1ff20d951a545d15
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.31--115.05-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 03:53:29 PST
Source Batch
20260805_182241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 03:53:30.040541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.