Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
28.3 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.3 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3838°N, 115.1619°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 01:18:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
46.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a955f521793671688f31fec0ed19cd7af11deedd1c9c69c195933464b390242
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.38--115.16-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 06:24:29 PST
Source Batch
20260801_205507_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 06:24:30.171442+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.