Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
30.9 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.9 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3876°N, 115.0968°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 04:18:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
146.4 km
46.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
20.8 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 11.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f69df34d19f65a5130a6cf469e1800c16d878bd128ffa531a964619c4ca64e28
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.39--115.10-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 20:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260813_111912_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 20:52:25.733806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.