Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
29.9 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.9 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3905°N, 115.1172°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 20:41:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
118.5 km
18.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8762902d224e8af5b606af434e6d1dd885574ac257103d266dc417df88bc0a6d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.39--115.12-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 07:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260813_215259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 07:25:42.204268+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.