Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
27.5 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.5 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3870°N, 115.1776°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 05:48:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
44.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.7 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 5.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cd694081c62ad10ac7eaec6c5939c49d69ab6ff69fc51d78904fecbf5985250c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.39--115.18-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 16:54:35 PST
Source Batch
20260802_072030_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.