Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
20.1 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.1 miles South of Calexico
32.3887°N, 115.4851°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 12:43:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
23.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b3592dfe95acbf532e5db906e126f5bf886f0e310643b7ae77bf560bc12e89a8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.39--115.49-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Source Batch
20260807_182918_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 04:01:32.694486+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.