Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
16.0 miles South-East of San Ysidro
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South-East of San Ysidro
32.3928°N, 116.8496°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 01:18:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
db038ed56d7364ac11d58c2924dcc8ec2711a40381e5f387fefc78d7dfde0a9e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.39--116.85-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 20:05:30 PST
Source Batch
20260812_102545_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 20:05:31.424703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.