Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
30.1 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.1 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4145°N, 115.0880°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 18:45:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
51h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.6 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
87faccc61768bb81e11705d27261801788bd1919c927d77088c57b90eaa78959
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.41--115.09-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 14:58:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_052549_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.