Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
27.3 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.3 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4117°N, 115.1539°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 00:29:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
4.0 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b8b9b3ecd652cc7c3b2ce7955ffaa7301455f07a1c01c11da45a33c98824f8ed
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.41--115.15-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 00:03:19 PST
Source Batch
20260809_143000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 00:03:20.102765+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.