Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
26.9 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.9 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4117°N, 115.1626°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 20:16:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
4.0 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a361ff0398b16f2177df0cdb0487da76b73da843cae67488b3ae6d2ad3fa371e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.41--115.16-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 20:23:57 PST
Source Batch
20260809_105047_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 20:23:58.874806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.