Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
25.6 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.6 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4229°N, 115.1821°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 15:42:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.61
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.6 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d2ab861b275f7ac4357109e340cd0eee303ac701b775cbfc96c58556fc24617b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.42--115.18-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_200611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 05:39:27.868892+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.