Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
22.4 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.4 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4155°N, 115.2751°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 12:43:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bf6cb70f020ff38660b62790fd672463d8265c69ced8c7e4e921c17663d3d84c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.42--115.28-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 00:18:15 PST
Source Batch
20260807_144554_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 00:18:16.373118+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.