Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
26.9 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.9 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4352°N, 115.1393°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 22:04:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c67918b75908035ea3601a1b4ad0e0ac36d50426f1e407797e9502761bfa1f97
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.44--115.14-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 16:26:08 PST
Source Batch
20260812_065535_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 16:26:18.474426+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.