Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
26.3 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.3 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4434°N, 115.1431°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 02:02:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
112.6 km
12.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
a7f6ddf92f76e2210a619f713291ffd2f86e9e90eead2d8e12ed73459340b54f
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-32.44--115.14-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 14:25:36 PST
Source Batch
20260814_115241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 14:25:37.421797+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-15 02:02:50.905000+00:00 2026-08-15T05:40:54.827
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T17:54:21.395398+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-15 02:02:50.905000+00:00 2026-08-15T05:40:54.827
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T21:25:42.305625+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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