Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
15.5 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles South of Calexico
32.4560°N, 115.4624°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 17:40:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
102.8 km
2.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
31.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
27.8 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 19.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
037014422de3bfa9fe26bbd463739ec5f1a7a2f0e6602f87c95ff43a05dc4603
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.46--115.46-t10330
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 27, 2026 09:58:21 PST
Source Batch
20260727_025332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-25 06:59:24.024244+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.