Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
15.5 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles South of Calexico
32.4560°N, 115.4624°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 06:11:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
42h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
21.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.13
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M2.4
- 0.13 over limit
Depth Error
15.3 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
353d490667099ae5a28591d82a5d2b07c988591b7be1effcc3f4dcb2b0bde606
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.46--115.46-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 27, 2026 12:11:32 PST
Source Batch
20260727_050646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-27 10:07:08.819405+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.