Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
3.8 miles East of Seeley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles East of Seeley
32.7722°N, 115.6308°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 04:02:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
75887b2869a88fcb7489c4e709ad34954a13cfc6d7b8434cb1a077214a16ce32
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.77--115.63-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 02:08:22 PST
Source Batch
20260808_163546_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 02:08:23.309793+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.