Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
5.9 miles East of Holtville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.9 miles East of Holtville
32.8358°N, 115.2834°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 05:53:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
23.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
be67f43f1dcae7d1eec5220a53d58ec03cdf5f8bb177738d8bdb1b93752be442
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.84--115.28-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 18:47:49 PST
Source Batch
20260808_091352_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 15:05:30.413017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.