Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
126.6 miles South-West of Gaviota
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
126.6 miles South-West of Gaviota
32.9602°N, 121.4746°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 15:22:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
324.4 km
224.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
18.9 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 12.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e0b656b01773d6ebb44634bf9607d7baadd1d978aa9f3d2627c86277fca6c98a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.96--121.47-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 16:26:49 PST
Source Batch
20260730_070424_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 16:26:50.666398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.