Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.9 miles South-East of Shelter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles South-East of Shelter Valley
32.9753°N, 116.2647°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 02:46:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
31.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
34.3 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 20.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
26cc9f85f1baf93e59e864fe8f3c5a2707c79a34cde97943604494851a4b246a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.98--116.26-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 10:39:51 PST
Source Batch
20260803_010540_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 07:06:42.272641+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.