Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
58.2 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
58.2 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
32.9924°N, 118.8425°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 22:23:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5ed0d83d3c60f6bb649a4cc145b2089ec6610905141cb521105b3d7b67553d11
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.99--118.84-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 09:27:32 PST
Source Batch
20260808_235402_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 09:27:33.418496+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.