Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
9.0 miles South-East of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.0 miles South-East of Calipatria
33.0449°N, 115.3923°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 07:04:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.7 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 4.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a48a50ce5d5a99c49f020681422138d186608dcac1025270b72368497ac1d6bf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.04--115.39-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.