Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
2.1 miles South-East of Shelter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles South-East of Shelter Valley
33.0438°N, 116.2995°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 01:51:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
36.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
23.6 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 20.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0bc36fc4fa4e3b153b5bf916e95e261b7c8206b76a9deec7d5bb2f859d7b8061
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.04--116.30-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 00:12:45 PST
Source Batch
20260805_144116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 00:12:46.609111+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.