Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.7 miles North of Westmorland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North of Westmorland
33.1473°N, 115.6403°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 19:48:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
109.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.8 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
a7c498f6fd9c4068f4a66bf72f09da837cf72ab82f1b6f5809d8dfde1cca07d2
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.15--115.64-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 21, 2026 18:02:47 PST
Source Batch
20260821_091212_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-21 18:02:48.380774+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.