Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.7 miles East of Slab City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.7 miles East of Slab City
33.2586°N, 115.2636°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 04:44:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
151h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 11.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4714d0d1eef1c7131c8651a8757058b5973535e01caee3b46fc03234ca181316
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.26--115.26-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_090504_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.