Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.3 miles South-West of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles South-West of Bombay Beach
33.2836°N, 115.8031°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 22:31:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
54h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
26.2 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 11.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
94b516421d9bf62a121662c0d8094de108f197a28e716a8a15d131d54a467195
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.28--115.80-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 15:42:07 PST
Source Batch
20260811_072807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 15:42:08.462036+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.