Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
12.0 miles South of Aguanga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.0 miles South of Aguanga
33.2760°N, 116.8994°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 03:13:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 16.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
819e8b4a3bc1805a3494d38043cb575421fcf09aa701a8592cfe0eca7c9ab537
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.28--116.90-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 22:53:35 PST
Source Batch
20260731_133613_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 22:53:36.323059+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.