Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.9 miles South-West of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles South-West of Bombay Beach
33.2947°N, 115.7807°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 03:41:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
20.5 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
02d7c30e06193869bf6830a3ad0ab100696136c8d02dbb482e3894cd76877425
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.29--115.78-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 17:54:21 PST
Source Batch
20260814_093919_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 17:54:22.416626+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.