Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
12.4 miles South of Dana Point
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles South of Dana Point
33.2921°N, 117.7463°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 22:31:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
60.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
40.2 h
4.2 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6c3dbc5acdb702091db6ff98ead72624337da5254cee480c5ce3805541183e95
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.29--117.75-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 05:51:50 PST
Source Batch
20260811_213727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 05:51:51.941012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.