Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.8 miles South of Dana Point
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.8 miles South of Dana Point
33.2996°N, 117.7392°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 22:41:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
32h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
24.8 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c31d019c9fb32003f787388b525656804364ef4328563f4abfc5bd1dcf9271e8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.30--117.74-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 13:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260813_053237_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 13:47:54.526147+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.