Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
62.9 miles South of Oxnard
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
62.9 miles South of Oxnard
33.3125°N, 119.4320°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 16:05:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
97h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
140.5 km
40.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea2050b6391c0f875d9bf0bd86931eff967eca0d9193b06d27074f61b404d74c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.31--119.43-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 15:05:29 PST
Source Batch
20260808_065114_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 15:05:30.413017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.