Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
2.6 miles South-West of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.6 miles South-West of Bombay Beach
33.3201°N, 115.7559°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 22:43:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
96h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9c2093331fcee8679ee03e397d80a3d9bd3a7472c2a961b06c9aa2d4389226e5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.32--115.76-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 22:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_140502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.