Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
21.6 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.6 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3317°N, 118.0767°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 14:29:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
101.3 km
1.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
21.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 8.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5e3c0a76551b3a5c12eb62fd7f0b0b49090fe76e3a651eefff82dc5127a8e2a9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.33--118.08-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 02:18:38 PST
Source Batch
20260804_164629_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 02:18:39.896357+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.